Russian bombing of the #Yavoriv base in Ukraine mere 20km from Polish border was meant as a signal to NATO - “Keep Out!” - we should do no such thing! Instead NATO needs to 1) arm Ukraine 2) provide missile defenses to 🇵🇱🇷🇴 3) Strongly increase NATO presence on Eastern flank 🧵

Post by @M\Baranowski

Author: Michał Baranowski @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:52.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009543025573888 Likes: 669 | Retweets: 173

Post

Russian bombing of the #Yavoriv base in Ukraine mere 20km from Polish border was meant as a signal to NATO - “Keep Out!” - we should do no such thing! Instead NATO needs to 1) arm Ukraine 2) provide missile defenses to 🇵🇱🇷🇴 3) Strongly increase NATO presence on Eastern flank 🧵

Thread

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:53.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009546741788674

2. Putin frustrated with the slow progress of his land operation and heavy losses - over 6,000 soldiers and 40% of Russian vehicles destroyed - is turning to indiscriminate destruction of 🇺🇦 cities and is getting dangerously close to #NATO borders.

Likes: 65 | Retweets: 8

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:53.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009548197249025

2. NATO needs to do more - and quickly - to both significantly need up Ukraine’s air-defense, and to deter Russia from making the war spill over into NATO territory.

Likes: 57 | Retweets: 8

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:54.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009549510062085

2. What does Ukraine needs now? First, NATO needs to speed up delivery of weapons that will deal with Russia’s long-range artillery, cruise-missile and rocket systems. It means more intelligence sharing more long-range systems as well as more anti-ship ammunition and naval mines.

Likes: 61 | Retweets: 12

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:54.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009550969679874

2. More details on where Russia is militarily and what Ukraine needs in this excellent analysis here by @generalben and @FrencLindley 👉

Likes: 40 | Retweets: 8

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:55.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009552781619200

2. Second, #NATO needs to send more anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems – like the #Patriot missile defenses system - to the Alliance’s borders, especially to #Poland and #Romania that share the longest borders with Ukraine and are closest to the war.

Likes: 51 | Retweets: 10

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:55.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009554161549315

2. Third, Alliance needs to dramatically increase military presence on its eastern flank. Balance of forces in the northeastern flank of NATO is where we have a real problem. With the soft annexation of Belarus by Moscow its territory has become de facto Russian military space

Likes: 48 | Retweets: 9

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:55.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009555486904320

2. Baltic states are surrounded by Russia to the south and east, and only the narrow “Suwalki Gap” corridor of 100 km between Poland and Lithuania connects them to the rest of NATO territory. Poland now has over 1,160 km of border that is vulnerable to Russian military operations

Likes: 49 | Retweets: 12

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:56.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009556841713667

2. Right now, NATO relies largely on 1,000 soldier strong battalion groups in each of the Baltic states and Poland as a tripwire to deter Russia. This force posture is no longer sufficient given Russia’s aggression and the size of its forces on its western flank.

Likes: 47 | Retweets: 10

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:56.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009558036992001

2. NATO needs to change its posture to “forward defense.” Today #NATO defense ministers meeting is a good moment to start. #ForwardDefense

Likes: 89 | Retweets: 18

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:56.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009559337324546

2. What NATO’s forward defense would look like? At a recent closed meeting in Warsaw, a senior NATO military leader said his military advice would be for the Alliance to send as many as six #divisions - 90,000 soldiers - to its #easternflank, many of them on permanent basis.

Likes: 51 | Retweets: 10

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T08:19:56.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504009559337324546

2. Putin made it clear that his ambitions extend beyond Ukraine into Central Europe – it’s critical that NATO stops pulling punches - frustrating his plans in Ukraine, and securing Alliance’s borders for a long era of confrontation with Russia.

Likes: 51 | Retweets: 10

1. Thread Post Author: @M\Baranowski Posted: 2022-03-16T09:53:07.000Z URL: https://x\.com/M\Baranowski/status/1504033010219368452

A @gmfus piece with the argument above developed 👇

Likes: 40 | Retweets: 11

Top Comments

1. @christer\kohler Author: vildgalten Posted: 2022-03-16T10:59:02.000Z URL: https://x\.com/christer\kohler/status/1504049598347763718

Also there need to be a strong will and plan from EU to help build Ukraine post war or they will be lost for the west…

Likes: 8